Category: Uncategorized

US “Joint Intelligence” Report on Russian Election Interference

To view embedded comments – Open PDF File in Adobe Reader 

intelligence_community_assessment
ICA Report with critique

“Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution

  1. It is clear that the Russian administration preferred a Trump Presidency than a Clinton Presidency. This is NOT interfering in a US Presidential Election.
  2. The Russian State Controlled media RT (formerly Russia Today) legitimately expressed its Trump bias in the same way as ALL the American Mainstream Media expressed a bias for a Clinton Presidency.  Voice of America does the same as RT throughout the world.
  3. Direct Election interference by the Russian State remains a possibility – but remains theoretical and totally unproven.
    1.  Much greater interference from European sources opposed to the current incompetent leadership.
    2. It is proposed that Social media and Comment boards on all media – both Left leaning and Right leaning publications had a greater impact on the American voter than any Russian Media.
    3. The source of Podesta emails published by Wikileaks is very much disputed – and there is equal evidence that the source could have been inside the DNC, unprovable since this source was murdered before he could speak to the FBI.It seems that another suspect whose identity is unknown other than a “Pen name” – Guccifer 2.0., and seemingly identified as a Romanian, until the intelligence agencies set out to disprove this and give Guccifer 2.0 an “accredited” Russian Identity.  Incidentally, the Romanians universally hate the Russians, therefore Guccifer 2.0 could not remain “Romanian”.
  4. The Joint Intelligence report fails to identify specific events together with dates and occurrences of Russian interference in the Presidential Electoral Process.
  5. The Joint intelligence report makes reference Russian interference being triggered by Clinton having a purported lead in the run up to the election.
    1. The Intelligence agencies fail to recognise the Trump had established an unassailable lead by the beginning of September that had surged further during the second half of September and then maintained until election day.
    2. Full details of a daily tracking poll (national digital poll) are available here.

Report is based on flawed Judgements – Open in Abobe Reader to view comments embedded in Report

Thank You Donald for your Great Success

 

Email received Wednesday November 9 @ 12.09am EST

trump-email

Richard,

They said we could never do it.

Last night we learned that America is still a beacon of hope where the impossible is possible.

But last night you showed the world that America will once again be a country of, for, and by the PEOPLE.

You fought like a winner, you defied all odds, and history will forever remember the role you played in taking our country back.

I never could’ve done it without you, Richard.

For far too long, we’ve heard Washington politicians give the excuse that “it can’t be done.” They say we can’t balance the budget, we can’t stop corruption, we can’t control the border, we can’t bring jobs back to our country.

I REFUSE to accept that it can’t be done. This is the country that declared its independence, won two world wars, and landed a man on the moon. This is America. We can and we WILL get it done.

Now it’s time to start uniting our country and binding the wounds of our divided nation. I promise to be a president for ALL Americans. I will work for you. I will fight for you. And I will win for you.

You will soon remember what it’s like to win as an American.

Thank you and God bless you,

Donald J. Trump

 

Donald,

All of the Developed World owes you a Yuuge Thank you.  We appreciate your extraordinary stamina, will to win and clear presentation of your plans to Make America Great Again.

Congratulations on successfully winning the election and becoming the next President of the United States of America.

America and the entire developed World is in your Debt.

rpsig_350_blue

Richard Prior

 

As usual the full extent of the People’s vote behind you is covered up by the Poisonous Propaganda Press.

This Map from the Washington Post shows that America is Red with a few Blue dots mainly in Sanctuary cities.

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IQ Comparison – Presidents & Candidates

iqs

An intelligence quotient, or IQ, is a score derived from one of several standardized tests designed to assess intelligence. The IQ score is something people often talk about, but an IQ is not everything, and there are some surprising results when looking at some famous people’s IQs.

Bill Gates is reported to have an IQ of 160, which beats out most of the nation. Where as President Barack Obama meanwhile is reported to have an IQ of 130, which just beats out former President George W Bush, whose IQ was 125. However, both fall short of former President Bill Clinton whose IQ is reportedly 148. On a side note, Hillary Clinton is slightly lower than her husband with an IQ of 140.

Meanwhile, iconic President John F. Kennedy only had an IQ of 117, and Richard Nixon reportedly had an IQ of 131.

Vote for the President

 

Register your Vote Now

votepresident

Track the poll here

The Independent Poll that we were using as a Tracking Poll throughout September has succumbed to outside influences and totally removed Duplicate Vote control.

I have replaced this Poll with the provider of the Daily Telegraph Poll that most accurately forecast the Brexit result for the entire 6 month period leading up to June 23rd.

 

Nigel Farage on Political Polls

nigel-farage

I think there were two phenomenons here. I think the first is that on telephone polls, particularly, people are nervous to come across as being too conservative, too socially conservative.

So, you know, we’ve seen in the last few years in Britain opinion polls getting it wrong because people aren’t quite telling the truth on the telephone.

But there’s another phenomenon here. And frankly, the polling industry in Europe — I mean, frankly, it’s almost bankrupt in terms of its reputation. And I wonder whether we’re seeing the same phenomenon in America.

What I’m talking about is the polling companies find it really hard to find people who are outside of politics and who are now coming into politics.

And that’s why the opinion polls over Brexit were wrong, although I do admit I suffered myself from a bout of eleventh-hour nerves.

 

Trump vs Clinton

How Sick is the American Economy?

  1. Under Obama, Unsustainable National debt has doubled to 19.5 Trillion dollars
  2. Corporate Debt has also doubled since the end of 2007
  3. Default rates on U.S. corporate debt are the highest  since the last financial crisis.
  4. Corporate profits have fallen for five quarters in a row
  5. Commercial bankruptcy filings were up 29 percent against previous year
  6.  The rate of new business formation stagnated at lowest levels since 2008
  7. This is the weakest “economic recovery” since 1949.
  8. Barack Obama is on track to be the only president in all of U.S. history to never have a single year when the U.S. economy grew by at least 3 percent.
  9.  Capital expenditure growth has turned negative, and history has shown that this is almost always followed by a new recession.
  10. The percentage of Americans with a full-time job has been sitting at about 48 percent since 2010.  You have to go back to 1983 to find a time when full-time employment in this country was so low.
  11. The labor force participation rate peaked back in 1997 and has been steadily falling ever since.
  12.  The “inactivity rate” for men in their prime working years is actually higher today than it was during the last recession.
  13. The United States has lost more than five million manufacturing jobs since the year 2000 even though our population has become much larger over that time frame.
  14. If you can believe it, the total number of government employees now outnumbers the total number of manufacturing employees in the United States by almost 10 million.
  15. One study found that median incomes have fallen in more than 80 percent of the major metropolitan areas in this country since the year 2000.
  16. According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.
  17. The rate of home-ownership in the U.S. has fallen every single year while Barack Obama has been in the White House.
  18. Approximately one out of every five young adults are currently living with their parents.
  19. The auto loan debt bubble recently surpassed the one trillion dollar mark for the first time ever.
  20. Auto loan delinquencies are at the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.
  21. In 1971, 61 percent of all Americans were considered to be “middle class”, but now middle class Americans have actually become a minority in this nation.
  22. One recent survey discovered that 62 percent of all Americans have less than $1,000 in savings.
  23. According to the Federal Reserve, 47 percent of all Americans could not even pay an unexpected $400 emergency room bill without borrowing the money from somewhere or selling something.
  24. The number of New Yorkers sleeping in homeless shelters just set a brand new record high, and the number of families permanently living in homeless shelters is up a whopping 60 percent over the past five years.

.

mike_pence_on_clinton

Donald Trump has given voice to the frustrations and aspirations of the American people like no leader in my lifetime since Ronald Reagan. He’s cast a vision to Make America Great Again.

From the days of the primary through our convention and every day since, he’s been outlining the details and policies that will restore American strength at home and abroad, uphold our Constitution, promote the kind of trade policies that will put the American worker first, end illegal immigration. He’s laid out the details of those policies. And the contrast with the real insult-driven campaign of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine could not be more dramatic.

Their campaign every day seems to be intent on calling a press conference and focusing on what Donald Trump said or Tweeted in the last days or weeks or in some cases years. But the reason why you saw the crowd here in Virginia, the reason why you see the enormous crowds that are coming out for Donald Trump, is because by articulating a vision and laying forth the policies for how we Make America Great Again, Donald Trump has inspired a movement in this country and I think it’s going to carry him all the way to the White House.

US Balance of Trade 1980 – Present

US Balance of Trade 1980 – Present

I have advised World leaders during America’s High Point in Trading.

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

Trade Deficit increased from $5 Billion per month to $34 Billion.

 

Jimmy Carter
Jimmy Carter

Surprisingly – Not such a bad Trade balance record. Trade Deficit bounced between 1 Billion per month to a Low of 0.7 Billion in January 1980 and gaining a Positive Trade Balance in mid 1980. Well done Jimmy

 

Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan

Not so Good – Not so Bad.
Positive Trade Balance achieved for first 12 months. Trade Deficit increased for next 3 years and fell during his 2nd Term.
Reagan’s achievements outweigh the country’s gradual Trade Deficit.

 

George Bush
George Bush

The worst Trade performance by far took place during the period of his Presidency falling from 30 billion per month to 67.8 Billion in 2006. The final months of the GWB Presidency shaved of 20 billion per month from the Trade Deficit.

 

George H W Bush
George H W Bush

Not half bad. Took an 8 billion a month Trade Deficit at the start of his Presidency to a Trade Balance in 1991.

His record was spoilt somewhat by the idiot Saddam Hussein who cost the Western World a small fortune to prevent the overrun of Saudi Arabia and to kick the madman out of Kuwait.

 

barack-obama
Barack Obama

It only took 3 months before Obama sent the Trade Deficit spiraling downwards to the 50 billion per month mark from which his policies have never achieved a recovery worth writing about.

 

Richard Prior
Richard Prior

Now for my record.

Advising Central Banks & Governments throughout the world and in particular, contributing to a startling rise in prosperity of China following an assignment to help the Beijing Government prevent a financial meltdown in 1991.

Donald Trump – Key Note Speeches

rp_pw_wordpress

DJTx250

Important Policy Speeches

 August 18  Fighting for the Individual American
August 16  Law & Order in US
 August 15  Foreign Policy
 August 8  Economic Plan
 August 31  Immigration Policy
 September 20  Donald Trump Rally – High Point University NC

Quotations

Winston Churchill
I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.

George Bernard Shaw
A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.

Progressives have no ability to understand the economic implications of ANY Trade decisions that they take.

Presidential Race Polls – Too many have zero validity

rp_pw_wordpress

It is about time the media stopped giving credence to small sample polls.

Why – Look at the fiasco of almost daily polling leading up to Brexit.

Recent history – Examining Polls leading up to Britain’s EU Referendum. All of the MSM presented small sample polls that seemed to confirm that the Government sponsored “Remain” result was comfortably leading BUT an online poll with a sample size of 907,000 indicated a 65% win for “Leave”.

Have a look @ The Daily Telegraph Article leading up to Brexit

These are the results of the almost 1 million sample sized Poll

The Daily Telegraph controlled mass Vote duplication by restricting voting to Digital Subscribers of this online Newspaper.

Now America has its own version that uses the largest possible data sample – The State voter registration data – Now an Analyst company with a web address – www.longroom.com produced a statistically valid proposition that the published Presidential Polls were biased.

Now, I found their claim interesting enough to examine more closely their methodology. BUT the site has now been taken down – no surprises here – you can, however, see the results of removing the bias from a wide number unprofessional pollsters – here

VoteforthePresidentOnline.com Online Interactive Poll

New Online Poll
Vote for the President Now (1 Vote per IP address)

Presidential Polls – Bias Analysis

rp_pw_wordpressRecently a Website – Longroom.com – provided comparison data of Presidential Pollsters has challenged the basis of these published Polls claiming a bias towards the Democrat Nominee.

The Methodology used by Longroom based on Voter registration data recorded in State voting districts is different from the many published Pollsters who rely on Sampling – by Phone / Interview / Digital sampling.

The accuracy of Political polls has become questionable over the last few years, first with the British General Elections and followed by significant lapses in accuracy in the lead up to the EU Referendum in Britain on June 23.

The Longroom data has been sorted by Polling company and this has shown significant aberration particularly concerning sampling variations within a single Pollster – For example – The 8 YouGov Polls all have varying samples (size and people). Rasmussen appears to be more consistent with the same sample size in each poll. Morning Consult has the greatest variation of Sample size.

Basically, there is no sound methodolgy for comparing polls even within a single polling company.

Using the Voter  Registration data as Longroom.com has done provides a validation methodology for assessing the accuracy of the various pollsters.

On 12 August, it appears that a Denial of Service operation has affected access to the Longroom.com site – this could be interpreted as suspicious.

The author of this page is a former Price Waterhouse Management Consultant and Statistician.

longroom_data

 

LongRoom Unbiased Poll
Trump 43.6%, Clinton, 42.8%
Trump leads by 0.6%

 

Donald J. Trump 43.4%  +0.6%
Hillary Clinton   42.8%

LongRoom Unbiased – Methodology

The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state’s Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state.

Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is either left or right leaning.

The analysis of the polls of each polling organization and the associated bias is illustrated in a line chart. The most recent poll results are displayed separately and a graphic representation of the amount the poll leans either left or right is shown.

The graphs below cover the last three presidential elections and show the LongRoom Polling Analysis of polls for those elections. In all cases, the LongRoom Analysis was accurate to within +/- 0.3%.

References for the voting data from each state are included below in the list of sources.

How do we know the polls are biased?

We know the polls are biased because the statisticians who produce the polls say they are biased, both explicitly and implicitly. This is also widely reported in the media. Let’s look at two recent examples. The Reuters/Ipsos poll last week, July 29th, decided to use “forcing” to assign those who were surveyed to a candidate, even if the person who was surveyed had no preference. Reuters/Ipsos applied this “technique” not only to their most recent poll, but went back through all their previous polls and redid them, assigning those with no preference to a candidate of the pollster’s choice. This innovative approach to polling was not universally popular with other pollsters, as Pat Caddell, a pollster with decades of experience, expounded in this article: “Pat Caddell on ‘Cooked’ Reuters Poll: ‘Never in My Life Have I Seen a News Organization Do Something So Dishonest’” . Another example would be the CNN poll from July 30th, where the crosstabs for Question P1 show that 97% of Democrats have committed to a candidate three months before the election. In the history of elections, it is difficult to find an example where 97% of a demographic have made up their minds on who to vote for even on election day, no less in the middle of summer before an election in November.

For a rather extensive list of biases that a statistician may introduce into a poll, there is an excellent article here by Nate Silver where he discusses the biases he uses in creating his analysis, and why he thinks his biases are good.

Statisticians also use “weighting” to produce the poll results that are published in the media. The weighting is simply how many of each demographic the statistician believes will vote based on the detailed questions that are asked when the poll is taken. An example of how this affects polls is demonstrated in the polls out this last week, ending July 31st. Some polls have changes of 10% and more in presidential preference while other polls have a change of only a few percent. Clearly, both of these results cannot be correct.

So like opinions, every statistician has their own biases, but none of them wants to see the other guy’s. Here at LongRoom we leave out the biases and let the data speak for itself.

How do you remove the bias in the polls?

As we discussed above, each poll reflects the biases of the statisticians who prepare the poll. Since each statistician has their own specific biases that they introduce into their poll, it is extremely difficult to compare one poll to another. At LongRoom we use the actual state voter registration data from the Secretary of State or Election Division of each state. We add no “expert” adjustments to the data. This means that all the polls are rationalized one to another based on actual data.

What can we expect going forward?

As the election approaches, the statisticians who produce the various polls will begin to back out their biases. In the final few weeks before the election, you will start to notice a convergence of all of the polls. This occurs because the statisticians will use essentially the same data that LongRoom is using now to produce their polls with their own biases removed. So, you might be thinking at this point, are you really saying that all of the polls will eventually match LongRoom? Yes, we are, it is a mathematical certainty, that as the election approaches, all of the polls will begin to match the polls here on LongRoom. This may be difficult for some to believe, however, there is an excellent archive at RCP that shows the poll results for the 2012 presidential election and this typical convergence of polls as the statisticians’ biases are backed out.

What is the earliest that you can tell who will be the next president?

The day after the election. This may sound humorous but it is actually the truth, there is no reliable predictor for who will win a democratic vote. An example of this is the March 14th, 2004 Spanish General Election which we covered and analyzed. On March 10th, 2004, the Conservative Party was leading in the polls, and as they were the incumbents, were likely to succeed in the election. However, on March 11th, there was a Madrid train bombing. The Conservative government quickly blamed the ETA Spanish Separatist group. As more information was uncovered, it became obvious that the bombing was the work of the Islamist group, Al-Queda. The Conservative government continued to claim it was ETA in spite of the mounting evidence. The electorate rapidly came to believe that the Conservative government was trying to cover up the Islamic involvement and gave the liberal opposition party a 5 point margin of victory. So, in a matter of only three days, there was an 8 point swing in voter preference.

For more information about the 2004 Spanish General Election and the impact the bombing had on it, Wikipedia has a write up here.

To make this example more relevant to our current presidential election, imagine that 3 days before the election there is a terrorist incident here in America, and Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton place the blame on right-wing Christian extremists, while Mr. Trump blames radical Islamic terrorists. As the hours tick by, it becomes obvious that the terrorist incident is the work of radical Islamic terrorists, however Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton continue to deny the Islamic involvement. Just as in Spain, it is game, set, match, and Mr. Trump is the next president of the United States.

So, if anyone pretends they can predict the election, just keep in mind: Life Happens.

What tools does LongRoom use?

We have developed our analytical model using the programming language that we and other actuaries have used for the last 30 years, APL.